Erroneous Risk Assessment and Mitigation #4:Myth or urban legend

At one of my churches, word was spread about a child being snatched from a Church Nursery. All of a sudden I had parents demanding all kinds of changes for our nursery and families stopped bringing their children. I called the State Highway Patrol and asked about the story. No story, it never happened. Indeed only 50 “abductions” occurred that year, which is less than one per county, and most of the incidents occurred in one of two counties, neither of them the church's. Almost all of the incidents were from a non-custodian parent or grandparent grabbing their own child. So I set a new nursery policy tightening up sign-in/sign-out procedures. I then sent a letter to the families, explaining the facts and what the changes were. Problem solved.

• Try to trace the source of a concern. Google it, call an authority, check Snopes.com
• Is the situation rational?
• Would it have made the newspapers if it actually happened?
• Is the data specific? “I have heard” or “Over in [town name] such and such happened” isn't enough
• Again, apply the rules of risk assessment: is the problem likely enough that you should take it into consideration

Erroneous Risk Assessment and Mitigation #3: All or nothing.

Rarely is a situation strictly all or nothing, but is both a matter of probabilities and possible fixes. I once had a group of Trustees take away the church 15 passenger van because they saw a “60 Minutes” show “Dangerous at any speed” This was supposedly based on a NTSB study. None of the Trustees had read that report or even interested in doing so: Vans can be dangerous, therefore we do not use vans. The report actually said that SUVs were more likely to roll over than vans. The primary cause of vans rolling over was improperly inflated tires. Well that is certainly easy enough to fix! And the danger in a van that is rolling over is that an unbelted passenger can be thrown out and crushed. 80% of those who died in van accidents were not belted; 92% of those wearing belts in van accidents survived. Again, this is easy enough to fix! (I would give this statistic to my young passengers and all through the van you would hear “click.”) Because of the all or nothing approach, we had to stop using that van and pay a huge amount of money for a different type of 15 Passenger van. One that was probably at least as dangerous – but there wasn't a “60 Minutes” show on it.

• Can the danger be mitigated?
• Can a simple change reduce the risk to acceptable levels?

Erroneous Risk Assessment and Mitigation #2: Sleight-of-hand

As we all know, the way sleight-of-hand works is that we are watching the wrong hand. Sometimes in risk management we or they are watching the wrong situation. The classic is youth sports during lightening. Everybody talks about “kids swinging metal bats.” They are not the ones in immediate danger – the bats are aluminum, a poor conductor. The person most in danger is the pitcher on the mound, or the coach on the sidelines. Again, as per post #1, lightening deaths at a little league game is slim, but it is easy to make it 0 – and who likes playing ball in a downpour – but it is a matter of getting everyone off the field and into a grounded or insulated space. Because lightening was not understood, one league insisted that the players get into the dugouts, which, usually were chain link enclosures! The rule increased, rather than reduced the danger to the kids.

• Consider where the danger, if any, actually is. Focus on that.
  

Erroneous Risk Assessment and Mitigation #1: bad or ignored statistics

Risk assessment is always a matter of probabilities. Is it possible? Is it probable. Sometimes we worry about and restrict an activity even though the risk is remote.

• My current pet-peeve is closing indoor pools because of lightening. Under correct conditions (modern building) this is impossible and there are no reported cases of it.
• There are many things about a pool that are dangerous and much more likely, but we do not close the pool because of these possibilities.
• When assessing a risk, look to see what the probabilities are
• Apply the Engineer's test: does this make sense?
• Don't take anyone else's word for it, research it

Erroneous Risk Assessment and Mitigation #0: Overview

It will help for you to review all the positive posts on Risk Assessment: Go to the blog homepage: http://youthministryhints.blogspot.com go down the right hand side to the list of topics and select “Risk.”
Sometimes risk assessment or mitigation is done incorrectly. Sometimes we are mistaken, sometimes we are influenced by myth, urban legend, or misinformation, sometimes we are pressured by others because of myth, urban legend, or misinformation. It is important to know what is right, even if you cannot go with it. Sometimes we have to accept a dumb idea...
Anyway, the subsequent posts on this subject will be looking at common mistakes:

1. Bad or ignored statistics. Impossible or improbable vs probable or likely
2. Sleight-of-hand. Watching the wrong issue or variable.
3. All or nothing. Ignoring or not implementing mitigation.
4. Myth or urban legend

Auto insurance

Have high coverage for carrying passengers for yourself and your vehicle and for the church.  This may seem obvious, but too many don't get around to reviewing their policy or try to cut corners here.  It is not worth the risk.

"handing off a youth"

When a group is in a less controlled setting, where it is easy for a youth to get lost or disconnected from the rest of the group, assign each youth to an adult. Adults and youth should know that each youth should be within eyesight of one of the adults and the adult needs to know that they are responsible for that youth. Kids can't just drift from one group to another without a clear “hand-off.” In other words, if a youth wants to go with another group or one group decides to do one thing and another group wants to do something else so that some shuffling is reasonable and acceptable, one adult agrees to pass the youth to the other group and the other adult agrees to accept the youth. This needs to be explicit even if very informal. It is easy for the receiving adult to not know they have a new assignment or the sending adult not know they are no longer responsible for a youth and waste time searching for the “missing” youth.

Policy for music/videos/video games

You may need a policy about videos/music/games that are are acceptable. For youth work you really need to work with a “least common denominator” position: P or possibly PG for videos, E10+ or possibly T for video games, no “explicit lyrics” for music. This may frustrate the youth who'll say (true or not) that they get to watch X rated movies at home, but it is better than having some parent go ballistic and pull their child out of the program. Just explain the reasoning behind the policy to the youth.

Emotional risk assessment

Emotional risk issues are potential negative reactions to some activity.

• Can someone be humiliated?
  
• Can a person feel that something private is being exposed?
  
• Is there someone too close to a topic (such as a recent death in a family) to have it discussed objectively?
  
• Will something a youth takes seriously be taken lightly?
  

12 & 15 passenger vans

Although modern vans with “Electronic Stability Control” (ESC) systems have made these beasts a lot safer, the basic principles remain the same.
To summarize the actual data, as of 2002:

• These vans are no more likely to have an accident than any other vehicle on the road
  
• The most common problem causing accidents is incorrectly inflated tires
  
• If a van has an accident it is more likely than any vehicle except an SUV to roll over.
  
• Seat belts save lives: 80% of those who died in van accidents were not belted; 92% of those wearing belts in van accidents survived.
  
• The more weight a van carries, the less stable it becomes. The van becomes less stable if the weight is over the rear-tire or behind it.
  

Check out a new facility or space

When at a new site, such as a camp or trip, check the facility and area carefully. Look for hazards and possibilities, limitations and opportunities. Know your space well before things start.

One example: I was doing a “rustic camp” and walked every inch of the area we would be using. As the campers came in and registered it started pouring rain. Everyone was bummed, and depressed as it looked like things were going to be miserable when I suddenly took off running, threw myself down on the ground and slid across the field on my belly. I was soon joined by the campers and we had a great afternoon. That would not have been possible or safe if I hadn't already check the field and knew that it did not hold any hidden hazards in the area we used for our natural Slip N Slide.

Bathrooms and bathing

• Do not have separate bath/bathroom facilities for adults and youth. The youth are more likely to be abused in some fashion by a peer than an adult, and an area that is known to be unsupervised is an invitation to trouble.
  
• Adults should make it a practice not to bathe when youth are around or to be in the shower room when youth are bathing. This is inconvenient and means we bathe at odd times, but youth ministry isn't about convenience.
  

Suicide

Depression is common among youth and suicide is the number two killer of youth. These are major topics and it is important that all who are ultimately responsible for of group a youth have training and knowledge. My hints are mainly reinforcing some of the basics and are not comprehensive.

• Teach the basic signs of depression and suicide to the youth. Recognize that if they are also getting this in school, you don't have to spend too much time on it. Do add a religious perspective.
  
• No matter what our training and experience, if professional counseling is not our full time job, then our job is to recognize when a youth is in trouble and to get them to professional help. It is not our job to “save” a youth by ourselves. We can, however, be a part of a team.
  
• Always take suicidal comments seriously. Never assume they are not serious or doing it just for the attention. You cannot afford to be wrong.
  
• Make responses to any suicidal seeming comments by a youth quietly and as privately as possible. They don't need public attention nor humiliation.
  
• Learn the signs of depression and suicide, but recognize that some people never show any signs. You cannot be responsible for “missing the signs.”
  
• Teens are impulsive and sometimes do things on the spur of the moment.
  
• Keep in mind that when a seriously depressed youth is suddenly “at peace,” even happy, they have quite likely settled on suicide as the solution to their problems. That person may be in imminent danger, do not leave alone; ask what their plans are; get help. This probability is even more so if the person is going to all their friends and loved ones, essentially if not explicitly saying good-bye to them. People in this stage also tend to give away valuables.
  
• Suicidal people really want to live, they just don't know how to live with the pain they are in.
  
• Proverb though it may be, it is a worthy message to repeat often in the presence of youth: “Suicide is a permanent solution to a temporary problem.”
  
• Do not suggest that there is an easy solution to their problems or that their problems are “normal” or “trivial.”
  
• If you feel that you need to act: Speak directly and clearly; ask if the have a plan; be willing to listen to the feelings, rather than being sympathetic to their woes; be caring and sorry that they have woes; be non-judgmental (This is not the time to debate whether suicide is moral or not); don't give advice or solutions to their problems; don't ask “why”; don't be sworn to secrecy -- “I'd rather have you alive even if you hate me”; insist on taking them to a counselor, rather than just giving them a phone number to call.
  
• Suicidal people normally will take direction and guidance – they really want another way out.
  

Risk assessment on trips

On a trip, whether short or long, whether close or a long way away, always take time to do some risk assessment so that you are prepared. See post: https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=4916279693530706050&pli=1#editor/target=post;postID=6167297282748133231;onPublishedMenu=overviewstats;onClosedMenu=overviewstats;postNum=68;src=postnamek

• Make sure all staff know what the risks are and what to look out for.
  
• Have a plan of action for times when things go awry.
  
  • Do you have the equipment and supplies needed for the potential danger?
    
  • Is there help available nearby (or near enough for the potential danger)?
    
  • Do you have enough staff so that if you have to take someone to the hospital for physical risk situations or do emergency counseling and consoling for emotional or spiritual risk situations?
    
  • What if there are two injuries?
    
• Get advice from ground zero. If there is a question about the safety of an activity or a location (such as the Mexican Border), locate and call some neutral parties who have done the activity or who live in the specific area in question. Get their assessment (recognizing that it would not be wise for them to say that something is completely safe). Sometimes things look more dangerous from a distance and after sweeping and sensational news reports.
  

Protection from false accusations

“Just because you are paranoid doesn't mean people aren't out to get you.”

• Youth or adults that will willfully try to destroy you are rare, but they do exist
• To protect against such, you need a balance between paranoia and good sense.
• Don't let fear of such people make your ministry less effective. Risk cannot be completely eliminated no matter what you do.
• A few precautions can take care of most possibilities.
• Take the advice about not ever being completely alone with a student, etc.
• I have kept my paper pocket calendars (non-volatile!) for 30 years. I can say where I was and when for 30 years back.
• I keep all old email, even “trash.”
• Periodically I go through and remove sections of emails from vendors or other irrelevant correspondents.
• When my trash and sent boxes get really large I spin then off (“Old Trash2”) and start with new, empty copies of these folders.
• When instant messaging was common I saved logs of all conversations.
• I've not worked out a good way of tracking Facebook conversations, but I do have notices sent to me as emails which are then automatically saved.
• I usually send text messages via SMS from my emailer (and it is therefore captured in my “Sent” box)
• These precautions don't take any time or resources but preserve records, if needed.
• I make sure the kids and parents know that I'm cautious in this way.

Staying out of trouble

You are a sinner, the youth are sinners, and by-standers are sinners. Accepting these premises can save a lot of heartache.

• This theology translates into establishing practices that avoid temptation and misinterpretation.
• Too many fallen youth workers were not predators, but weaker and dumber than they thought they were.
• Too many destroyed careers were a result of a youth's word vs the youth worker's word with nothing and no one who could corroborate the youth worker's version of what happened.

There will be many specific suggestions on how to avoid trouble and misunderstandings in future posts

Risk assessment

It is neither appropriate to be reckless nor so cautious the youth do not have any fun and are not exposed to growing experiences. Here are hints about achieving a balance. (Insurance people may want to skip this section...)
Basic rules of risk assessment:

• How probable is harm (someone is sure to get hurt/no one is likely to get hurt).
  
• How severe is the harm if it occurs (if someone is hurt they might die/if someone is hurt they might break a nail).
  
• To what extent can the danger be mitigated or protected against (If they are strapped in there is little danger/otherwise they are in real danger).
  
• How important (fun, helpful) is the activity (the best activity ever/no one will miss it if we don't do it).