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Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Erroneous Risk Assessment and Mitigation #1: bad or ignored statistics


Risk assessment is always a matter of probabilities. Is it possible? Is it probable. Sometimes we worry about and restrict an activity even though the risk is remote.
  • My current pet-peeve is closing indoor pools because of lightening. Under correct conditions (modern building) this is impossible and there are no reported cases of it.
  • There are many things about a pool that are dangerous and much more likely, but we do not close the pool because of these possibilities.
  • When assessing a risk, look to see what the probabilities are
  • Apply the Engineer's test: does this make sense?
  • Don't take anyone else's word for it, research it
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